According to the latest production and sales data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September of this year, domestic automobile production and sales reached 2.796 million and 2.809 million respectively, an increase of 12.2% and 14.5% month on month. However, due to the continued downturn in the commercial vehicle market, compared to the same period last year, there was a slight decline in automobile production and sales in September, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% and 1.7% respectively.
From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of domestic automobiles reached 21.47 million and 21.571 million respectively, an increase of 1.9% and 2.4% year-on-year, with a narrower growth rate compared to the previous eight months. Among them, exports and new energy vehicles remain the main incremental sectors.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) pointed out that this is mainly due to the continuous strengthening of national subsidies for scrapped and updated cars in the third quarter, as well as the implementation of local policies for exchanging old cars for new ones. In addition, car companies have launched new autumn products, which has jointly promoted the increase in car sales.
Considering the positive role that the trade in policy has played in driving automobile consumption, in order to ensure the stability, continuity, and predictability of the policy, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers suggests that the relevant policies can be continued next year and the implementation details should be released as soon as possible to stabilize market expectations.
Strong independent performance, continuous record high exports
According to data disclosed by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2024, the production and sales of passenger cars in China reached 2.502 million and 2.525 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.6% and 15.8%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and 1.5%, respectively. From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 18.643 million and 18.679 million respectively, an increase of 2.6% and 3% year-on-year.
Image source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Chinese brand passenger cars are the main driver of growth, and their overall sales share is continuously increasing. In the first nine months of this year, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 11.919 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, corresponding to a sales share of 63.8%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points from the same period last year, setting a new historical high.
Correspondingly, the joint venture share continues to decline. From January to September, the sales market share of German, Japanese, American, and Korean passenger cars in China was 15.2%, 11.4%, 6.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, showing a significant decline compared to previous years.
While the overall competitiveness of domestic brands continues to improve, local car companies have also achieved good performance in overseas markets. In September, the cumulative export volume of domestic automobiles reached 539000 units, a month on month increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, the export of fuel vehicles was 428000, a month on month increase of 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; 111000 new energy vehicles were exported.
Image source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Chinese brand passenger cars are the main driver of growth, and their overall sales share is continuously increasing. In the first nine months of this year, Chinese brand passenger cars sold a total of 11.919 million new cars, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, corresponding to a sales share of 63.8%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points from the same period last year, setting a new historical high.
Correspondingly, the joint venture share continues to decline. From January to September, the sales market share of German, Japanese, American, and Korean passenger cars in China was 15.2%, 11.4%, 6.7%, and 1.2%, respectively, showing a significant decline compared to previous years.
While the overall competitiveness of domestic brands continues to improve, local car companies have also achieved good performance in overseas markets. In September, the cumulative export volume of domestic automobiles reached 539000 units, a month on month increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 21.4%. Among them, the export of fuel vehicles was 428000, a month on month increase of 6.6% and a year-on-year increase of 22.9%; 111000 new energy vehicles were exported.
Image source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
From January to September, among the top ten companies in terms of vehicle exports, BYD had the fastest growth rate, with a cumulative export volume of 302000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 96.3%. In addition, Geely and Changan have also achieved considerable growth rates, with exports reaching 404000 and 420000 vehicles respectively this year, an increase of 63.4% and 61% year-on-year.
From the perspective of overseas destinations, according to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, Russia, Mexico, and the United Arab Emirates rank among the top three in terms of automobile exports, while the top three markets for new energy vehicle exports are Belgium, Brazil, and the United Kingdom.
If divided by different price ranges, in the traditional fuel vehicle market, current sales are still mainly concentrated in the price range of 100000 to 150000 yuan. This year's cumulative sales have reached 3.596 million units, but compared to the same period last year, it has decreased by 13.3%. In addition, sales in the 150000 to 200000 yuan market range are also increasing, while sales in other price ranges are showing negative growth.
New energy vehicles continue to sell well, expected to reach 12 million units this year
Another important sales support for the growth of the automotive market is undoubtedly new energy vehicles.
In the just passed September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million respectively, an increase of 48.8% and 42.3% year-on-year, accounting for 45.8% of the total monthly sales of 2.809 million vehicles.
Among them, pure electric vehicles still occupy the majority of the market share, with production and sales of 786000 and 775000 vehicles respectively in September, an increase of 33.4% and 3.8% year-on-year. However, in terms of market growth rate, plug-in hybrid vehicles are the main force driving the growth of the new energy vehicle market, with production and sales reaching 522000 and 511000 units respectively in September, an increase of 80.1% and 84.2% year-on-year.
Image source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
From January to September, the total production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 8.316 million and 8.32 million respectively, an increase of 31.7% and 32.5% year-on-year. The sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 38.6% of the total sales of new vehicles.
The total production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 4.993 million and 4.988 million respectively, an increase of 11.9% and 11.6% year-on-year; The cumulative production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 3.318 million and 3.328 million respectively, an increase of 79.5% and 84.2% year-on-year.
Chen Shihua pointed out that the concentration of China's new energy vehicle industry is higher than the overall concentration of the automotive industry. Due to the continuous intensification of industrial competition and the differentiation of market patterns, key enterprises are also undergoing differentiation. Currently, the top three Chinese new energy vehicle companies have already accounted for half of the market share.
Looking at the price range, the current sales of new energy passenger vehicles are still mainly concentrated in the price range of 150000 to 200000 yuan, with a cumulative sales volume of 2.231 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%. Overall, in the market, sales of new energy passenger vehicles have shown positive growth in all price ranges except for the 400000 to 500000 price range, where sales have decreased year-on-year. Among them, the price range above 500000 has the largest increase.
In the traditional fuel vehicle market, current sales are mainly concentrated in the price range of 100000 to 150000 yuan. This year's cumulative sales have reached 3.596 million units, but compared to the same period last year, it has decreased by 13.3%. In addition, sales in the 150000 to 200000 yuan market range are also increasing, while sales in other price ranges are showing negative growth.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that the overall sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to reach 12 million units this year. Prior to this, the relevant person in charge of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers had predicted that the sales of new energy vehicles in China could reach 11.5 million units for the whole year of 2024, breaking the record and setting a new high. Currently, the new forecast is more optimistic.
