The following article is from the Science and Technology Review, by Ouyang Minggao
China 's new energy vehicle industry has experienced more than 20 years of development, and its core technology and industrialization have achieved global leadership. The next 10 years are crucial for whether new energy vehicles can form a sustainable development model. It is necessary to explore and discover the deterministic law around the uncertainty of the new energy vehicle market, and analyze and judge the cyclical and structural development trend of China 's new energy vehicles in the next 10 years. The main conclusions include : from now to 2026, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles will continue to grow rapidly. Represented by new energy vehicles, lithium batteries and photovoltaic cells, the new energy revolution will make breakthrough progress ; by 2030, the profitability of new energy vehicles will be positive, and the development of new energy will be based on the evolution of new energy vehicles to the new energy revolution ; by 2035, the focus of new energy vehicles and new energy revolution will shift from technological revolution to social concept and business model revolution. At the same time, it discusses that China 's new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of development, and there may be challenges such as intensified internal competition, overcapacity, market volatility and increased uncertainty, and proposes feasible solutions to cope with challenges and risk prevention.
Facing the goal of carbon neutrality, the world is experiencing the third energy revolution. The third energy revolution will take renewable energy as the main body and various batteries as the main driving force. The energy carrier will be electric energy and hydrogen energy, and the new means of transportation will be new energy vehicles. With the continuous progress of core technologies such as power batteries and the continuous implementation of the Chinese government 's support policies for the new energy vehicle industry, China 's new energy vehicle market has grown rapidly, from 6,000 annual production and sales in 2011 to 9.5 million in 2023, an increase of more than 1,500 times. This is a great achievement. It is the first time that China has taken the lead in introducing high-tech civil bulk consumer goods-new energy vehicles on a large scale in the world, leading the direction of global automobile development.
Throughout the development process of China 's new energy vehicles, it has gone through three stages, namely, the early introduction period, the subsequent growth period and the rapid growth period currently entering. From 2001, the Ministry of Science and Technology set up the ' electric vehicle ' key science and technology project, to 2009, the public domain new energy vehicles ' ten cities thousand vehicles ' demonstration project, and from 2010 onwards, the private purchase of new energy vehicles subsidy pilot work was launched, thus developing to the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market in 2023, with an annual sales volume of 9.5 million vehicles in the large-scale industrialization stage. The development of new energy vehicles entering a new stage will also usher in a series of new challenges, such as battery safety issues, charging issues, special electric drive chassis issues, etc. With the rapid development of the industry, the technological innovation of the new energy automobile industry is active, and the technology iteration is rapid. The above problems are being solved one by one.
However, China 's new energy vehicle market still faces many challenges and risks in the next 10 years. For example, problems such as overcapacity, insufficient charging infrastructure construction, and inconsistent technical standards may have a certain impact on market development. The industry needs to formulate corresponding risk prevention and solutions to ensure the sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and judge the development trend of new energy vehicles in the next 10 years for the " double carbon " goal in the field of transportation, and to provide support for exploring the mode of sustainable development.
This paper analyzes the short-term, medium-term and long-term development trend of new energy vehicles and the challenges and risks faced by the industry, and puts forward relevant countermeasures.
The short-term trend before 2026 : the rapid increase in the market share of new energy vehicles
In the short period, the rapid increase in the market share of new energy vehicles is attributed to two main reasons, namely, the economic environment and the development characteristics of the industry stage.
The economic environment for the development of new energy vehicles
The first reason for the rapid increase in the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market comes from the economic environment for the development of new energy vehicles, that is, the external development environment of the industry. China 's economy is about to enter a new round of expansion cycle, many positive factors to promote economic development. For example, the Central Working Committee on Finance and Economics issued policies to encourage the replacement of consumer goods and large-scale equipment updates. At the same time, the continuous improvement of logistics efficiency represents the arrival of a new round of upward trend of economic development. The above three are closely related to new energy vehicles. Specifically, the core of replacing old with new is the upgrading of bulk consumer goods represented by new energy vehicles ; in terms of equipment renewal, it is mainly based on commercial vehicles, construction machinery, etc. ; transport trucks are one of the key points in improving logistics efficiency. The external development environment of the industry has ushered in a new development cycle for the automobile industry.
The stage characteristics of new energy vehicle development
The second reason for the sustained and rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry is the stage characteristics of the development of new energy vehicles, that is, the structural changes within the industry. The structural changes of new energy vehicles are different from periodic changes, which are generally related to technological breakthroughs and industrial structure.
1 ) From a technical point of view, the development of new energy vehicle technology is from technical breakthrough to performance optimization, from electrification to intelligence. For example, in 2024, a series of technologies such as navigate on autopilot ( NOA ) will be industrialized in succession.
2 ) From the perspective of products, new energy vehicles are suitable for common working conditions to extreme working conditions, such as the Spring Festival travel in 2023. Some consumers reflect that electric vehicles cannot adapt well to extreme working conditions such as low temperature in winter. However, with the advancement of technology and the continuous improvement of infrastructure, the above problems will be gradually solved. For example, advanced thermal management systems are used to heat vehicles in winter, and sufficient high-power fast charging piles are equipped on highways.
At the same time, new energy passenger car models will develop from medium and high-grade passenger cars and economical passenger cars to mainstream A-class compact passenger cars for domestic use. The electric drive system will be mainly based on pure electric passenger cars, and gradually develop into a mode of both pure electric vehicles and plug-in / extended-range electric vehicles, showing a pattern of electric ' two-wheel drive '. Because the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle has the advantages of complete functions, high cost performance, short-distance low-cost electricity and long-distance high-efficiency oil, the market penetration rate of household A-class compact plug-in hybrid electric vehicle will increase significantly.
3 ) From the perspective of industry, new energy vehicles have developed from incremental exploration to stock game. The competition in the new energy vehicle market is fierce. This competition has three characteristics : first, the survival of the fittest in the new energy vehicle industry itself ; second, the game between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles has reached the decisive stage ; third, the game between independent brands and joint venture brands has reached a white-hot level. After decades of development, China 's new energy vehicle supply chain has developed from the initial stage of scarcity to the current supply chain adequacy and improvement, laying the foundation for the great development of the new energy vehicle industry. At the same time, from the perspective of subdivided industries, the electrification process of the automobile industry is developing from passenger cars to heavy trucks. In recent years, the development of heavy truck electrification has begun to accelerate. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in January 2024, new energy passenger vehicles increased by 101 % year-on-year, and new energy heavy trucks increased by 151 % year-on-year. In 2024, the growth rate of new energy trucks will be much larger than that of new energy cars. It is expected that the annual production and sales of new energy heavy trucks will exceed 70,000 in 2024, doubling compared with 2023.
4 ) From the perspective of price, the structural trend is manifested in the development process from ' electricity is more expensive than oil ' to ' oil and electricity are at the same price ', and then to ' electricity is lower than oil '. More than 10 years ago, the price of lithium battery was as high as 5 yuan / ( W · h ), which has been reduced to less than 0.5 yuan / ( W · h ). At the same time, because the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle has all the functions of the fuel vehicle, and has the advantages of energy saving and cleaning of the pure electric vehicle and the hybrid electric vehicle, the fuel consumption is less than 4L / 100 km under the fuel-electric hybrid condition, which completely surpasses the fuel vehicle. Therefore, the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle will begin to become popular. At present, there are two typical plug-in hybrid vehicles on the market. One is an extended-range plug-in hybrid vehicle, which works in series hybrid mode under hybrid conditions. Another type of plug-in vehicle generally belongs to series-parallel hybrid power in hybrid power conditions. It can work in series mode or parallel mode. It can be switched to parallel mode in highway conditions, which is the most fuel-efficient working mode. The extended-range vehicle only has a series mode, and the fuel consumption is high on the expressway.
5 ) From the market point of view, the new energy vehicle models show a trend of ' two-end squeeze '. The initial " two-end squeeze " of new energy vehicles has gradually developed from giving priority to the development of new energy buses and micro electric vehicles to medium and high-end electric passenger vehicles. Now the trend of electric cars is from luxury electric cars and economic electric cars to the mainstream of A-class electric cars.
New technologies often follow the law of product diffusion and are roughly divided into three stages. The first stage is the ' innovator ' purchase. Initially, only 2.5 % of the ' innovators ' will purchase innovative products, such as Weilai 's luxury electric vehicles. Although the price is as high as 500,000-600,000 yuan, there will still be a small number of ' innovators ' to purchase innovative products to experience new technologies. The second stage is ' early adopter ' purchase, ' early adopter ' can increase the market share to 16 %. Now entering the third stage, the ' early majority ' of consumers began to buy electric vehicles, and the market share of electric vehicles increased from 16 % to 50 %. In 2023, the market share of electric vehicles will be 31 %. It is expected that the market share will increase by 5 % ~ 10 % in 2024, reaching 36 % ~ 41 %, and annual production and sales will reach 12.5 million units.
Before 2026, it is expected that the market share of new energy vehicles will rise rapidly. Optimistic estimates show that the market share of new energy vehicles will be 40 % in 2024, close to 50 % in 2025, and more than 50 % in 2026 is a high probability event. New energy vehicles will become the dominant market by the end of 2026.
The mid-cycle development trend to 2030 : from new energy vehicles to new energy revolution
The new energy revolution has entered the outbreak stage
In the wave of global low-carbon transformation and new energy revolution, China has rapidly realized the transformation from following, and running to leading. New energy vehicles, energy storage batteries and photovoltaic cells are developing rapidly. In 2023, China 's annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 9.5 million units, lithium battery production and sales will reach 880 million kW · h, and photovoltaic and wind power will increase by 290 million kW. China 's customs statistics show that in 2023, China 's new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic cells, ' new three ' exports of 1.06 trillion yuan, breaking the trillion yuan mark for the first time. By 2030, the progress of the new energy revolution represented by the ' new three ' has the following judgments.
1 ) New energy vehicles. The number of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 100 million, and the market share will exceed 70 %.
2 ) Energy storage battery. Global lithium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 5 billion kW · h, and it is estimated that China will account for 50 % ~ 60 %, or 2.5 billion ~ 3 billion kW · h.
3 ) Hydrogen energy. The price of green electricity has dropped significantly, which has led to a significant reduction in the cost of hydrogen production. In 2023, the valley price of green electricity in China will generally reach 0.15 yuan / ( kW · h ), which makes the cost of green hydrogen production roughly the same as that of coal-to-ash hydrogen production, that is, it has reached the economic inflection point of green hydrogen production. In 2030, China 's green hydrogen production is expected to reach 5 million to 10 million tons.
4 ) Renewable energy generation. Based on the China-U.S.Intergovernmental Agreement " Sino-U.S.Sunshine Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis " : 2030, the global renewable energy installed capacity will be tripled to 3.5 billion kW by 2022, of which the total installed capacity of hydropower and biomass power generation is predicted to be 500 million kW. At that time, the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will reach 3 billion kW, making it feasible to increase the average annual installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power by about 280 million kW from 2024 to 2030. If the total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic reaches 3 billion kW in 2030, the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic is expected to exceed 4 trillion kW · h, which will account for about 35 % of the total electricity consumption of Chinese society. Coupled with hydropower, nuclear power and biomass power generation of 2.7 trillion kW · h, the total amount of non-fossil energy power generation will reach about 60 % of the total social electricity consumption.
5 ) Core technology breakthrough and application. In terms of the core technology of the new energy revolution in the future, it can be predicted that the next generation of all-solid-state lithium-ion battery technology is expected to be industrialized around 2030 ; at that time, the efficiency of perovskite and crystalline silicon tandem photovoltaic cells using full spectrum will exceed 30 %, and it is expected to be popularized and applied. The systematic industrialization of the whole chain green hydrogen energy technology is expected to break through ; fully automatic driving intelligent electric vehicles will be commercialized ; the system-wide coupled vehicle-network interaction and ' vehicle-energy road-cloud ' smart energy system will be promoted on a large scale.
6 ) Technology collaborative development planning. Based on the future outlook to locate the current development plan, the core should be from the development of power electrification to low-carbon energy. From ' three electric ' ( battery, motor and electronic control ) to low temperature charging, super charging and bidirectional charging. Facing the market demand, various charging innovation technologies are constantly emerging. Overcharge with charging power of more than 350 kW is urgently needed in the market, but the challenge is also great, especially in the low temperature conditions of northern winter. An international leading − 20 °C fast preheating-fast charging system has been developed in China, which preheats for 3 ~ 5 min and then super-fast charging. The integrated demonstration station of fast heating and supercharging has achieved good demonstration and application results in the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
The development of new energy vehicles promotes the new energy revolution.
With the large-scale development of new energy vehicles, electric energy supplement and new power grid are no longer developed separately, but integrated and coordinated. Taking the super fast charging of new energy vehicles as an example, it is not enough to improve the efficiency of super charging only by increasing the power of the charger, because the battery may not be able to withstand its higher charging current after increasing the power. Even if the new battery can adapt to high power charging, the old battery may not be able to adapt. At the same time, the safety and decay management and life assessment of the battery is also a very complex problem, which needs to consider the performance degradation of the battery throughout the life cycle. In addition, excessive charging current will lead to serious heating loss, so it is necessary to increase the system voltage to reduce the current. In order to adapt to this situation, the voltage standard of electric vehicles has been increased from 400 V to 800 V, and the corresponding electrical system also needs to be reformed. In addition, the power grid cannot withstand the impact of high-power charging, so it cannot directly obtain power from the power grid.
In order to solve this problem, it is necessary to isolate the impact of charging on the power grid through the energy storage system, and then release the stored energy. Therefore, the ' optical-storage-charging-exchange ' integrated microgrid came into being. Before , the individual technologies of new energy power generation connected to the grid have developed rapidly, but they have random fluctuations. When the scale of development is large, they interfere with each other, and the supply and demand cannot be balanced, resulting in grid security problems. The urban distribution network is unlikely to be transformed on a large scale, and the high-voltage transmission network is unlikely to change much before 2030.Therefore, it is necessary to establish an integrated industrial ecology of ' vehicle-energy-road-cloud ' to solve this problem. Through the interaction between large-scale new energy vehicles and power grids and the coordinated operation of energy, an intelligent energy system is formed. The system can be divided into three main application scenarios.
1 ) The first scene is the scene on the ' line ', that is, the highway. In this scenario, an integrated energy system of ' photovoltaic-energy storage-charging-recharge-recharge-hydrogen ' is constructed, and an integrated charging and swapping station is established along the expressway to provide swapping services for heavy trucks, while the standby battery pack of the swapping station acts as an energy storage battery for the power station. The electric passenger car is recharged by super charging, and the photovoltaic power generation board is set on both sides of the power station to generate electricity by itself. The system represents a typical model of energy and traffic integration along highways.
2 ) The second scenario is the ' surface ' scenario, that is, distributed photovoltaic power generation. At present, the whole country is vigorously promoting the ' house-vehicle-energy road-cloud ' integrated system, that is, installing photovoltaic power generation panels above buildings, using air conditioning and other equipment inside buildings as loads, and using battery packs of electric vehicles under buildings as energy storage equipment. Connect them together to form a system and connect all buildings to form a virtual power plant. This system can interact with the distribution network to adjust the fluctuation of the power grid.
3 ) The third scene is the ' point ' scene, such as mines, coal mines, oil fields, ports and industrial parks. An integrated system of ' power-hydrogen energy-heat energy-vehicle-grid ' can be established. The system contains hydrogen energy because hydrogen is used as a long-term energy storage when constructing a zero-carbon energy system. The ' car ' here refers to a variety of electric mobile machinery including electric vehicles. In the future, it will also include a variety of electric unmanned equipment, such as mobile robots. In fact, mobile robots and intelligent electric vehicles have the same basic common technology, where the ' car ' is both a load and an energy storage device.
The coordinated development of new energy power and new energy vehicles
The interaction between new energy vehicles and new energy power systems is reflected in the role of new energy vehicles ' batteries and hydrogen fuel cells in the development of new energy power. At the same time, new energy power also helps the development of new energy vehicles. At present, some people question that electric vehicles are new energy vehicles. Once the source-grid-load-storage and vehicle-grid interaction are realized, pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of the market and will truly become the representative of new energy vehicles. This is its development logic. In this mode, the electric vehicle can be charged at a low price and discharged at a high price. The more batteries on the electric vehicle, the more benefits. Purchasing electric vehicles can achieve profitability, which is a possible scenario by 2030.
In short, 2030 will be the outbreak of the new energy revolution. New energy power and new energy vehicles will achieve coordinated development. New energy vehicles will drive the development of new energy, and new energy will help electric vehicles become real new energy vehicles.
Long-term trend in 2035 : from technological revolution to social concept and business model revolution
The importance of social concept and business model change
The previous article discusses the importance of the technological revolution of new energy vehicles, but the changes in social concepts and business models are equally important to the development of new energy vehicles, and are currently lagging behind. This lag brings many severe challenges to the sustainable development of new energy vehicles. There are some negative public opinions on new energy vehicles in the current society. It can even be said that conceptual conflicts and negative emotions have reached a very intense level. For example, some economists are skeptical about the success of industrial policies, arguing that new energy vehicles cannot survive without subsidies. In addition, there are some people who worship foreign things and do not believe that China can innovate. For example, some people believe that China 's electric vehicles are only developed by relying on Tesla 's open patents. This is a completely unfounded rumor, but it is widely spread. This is because they do not believe that the Chinese can innovate. Some people who claim to know cars well always question the rationality of new energy vehicles. For example, they think that the problem of battery recycling cannot be solved. In fact, this is mainly due to the energy consumption and emission problems in the production and recycling process. Once renewable energy is developed, the problems of using green energy to manufacture and recycle batteries will be solved.In addition, there are some multinational companies strategy is clear, but the tactical implementation is very slow. This is because they are still selling fuel vehicles to earn huge profits, and the development of China 's electric vehicle companies has caused tremendous pressure on their electric vehicle business, so they are hesitant. There is also a common mentality that people are always picky about the technology in the early stage of industrialization, and are always full of beautiful imagination for the technology that has not yet been industrialized.
These problems will be gradually solved with the dominance of the new energy vehicle market share and the outbreak of the new energy revolution. However, there is also a problem that the overall profitability of China 's new energy vehicles does need to be improved compared with the profitability of fuel vehicles of international automobile multinational groups. The underlying logic of this issue is discussed below.
Profitability analysis of new energy vehicles
The profitability of new energy vehicles is mainly analyzed from three aspects : the stage of technological revolution, the form of competition with fuel vehicles and the change of new business model.
1. The characteristics of the new technological revolution
1 ) The first stage is the technology building platform. This stage is a process that requires a lot of money. For example, Weilai Automotive Technology Co., Ltd., invests tens of billions in research and development each year, but sales are not large. However, the fuel vehicles of major international automobile companies basically do not need to invest too much money any more. They can use their years of accumulated experience and brands to achieve centralized liquidity and naturally be profitable. New energy vehicles are in the input period, while traditional fuel vehicles are in the realization period, so there will be such a gap.
2 ) The second stage is scene definition product. In the process of developing products according to demand, it is not necessarily profitable. At the same time, there will be a dilemma. If the product is sold expensively, the market will lack demand ; if the price is reduced, it is difficult to make a profit. This is the stage that new things must go through. The development of new energy vehicles needs to be combined with a variety of scenarios. Different from the traditional automobile application model, the new scenario provides the possibility to achieve profitability.
3 ) The third stage is the model to create value. Fuel vehicles are profitable through the brand premium effect. Previously, in the field of self-owned brand fuel vehicles, the same car, the price of the self-owned brand could not meet the expectations, but if it was replaced by an international brand logo, it could increase the price by 100,000 yuan, which is the effect of brand premium. However, the establishment of the brand needs time cycle and accumulation, including the accumulation of sales, the accumulation of technology and the establishment of service reputation. Only after a long period of accumulation, to be able to play the value of the brand.
2.Electric vehicle is the product of technology equity.
Due to the smaller difference in product performance, the competition is intensified. For example, acceleration and noise levels are usually the technical points of fuel vehicle technology competition, which are relatively easy to solve in electric vehicles. The reason why the international automobile enterprises do not choose to transform the electrification is that once the technology parity is realized, the monopoly will be broken. Large international companies usually tend to establish technical barriers, raise the threshold, so that other competitors can not enter, only the technology monopoly to earn high profits. The electrification of new energy vehicles is only the foundation, and intelligence can increase added value and provide more imagination space. For example, it is feasible in the United States for Tesla to change the traditional car business model by providing self-driving software payment services ; however, in China, the business model is unlikely to succeed because the price of fully automatic driving software is high and most Chinese consumers will not buy it.
3. Promote business model change, electric-intelligent-low carbon integration to change the business model.
In China, new energy vehicles are expected to subvert the traditional business model of the automotive industry. China 's power-changing heavy truck is a successful example of business model innovation. The key lies in the rational allocation of the entire value chain and the adaptation of new production relations to new productivity. Observing the last round of the information revolution, we can clearly see this rule. Most Chinese Internet companies are not focused on the productivity revolution of information technology innovation, such as the development of chips and system software. On the contrary, they are mainly engaged in the adjustment of production relations in the information technology revolution, such as Alibaba, Didi and Meituan. However, at present, China 's new energy vehicles do not seem to have a successful example of truly changing the business model. Therefore, it is possible to change the business model of the car to realize the integration of electrification, intelligence and low carbonization. In addition to electrification and intelligence, low-carbonization needs to be added. On the one hand, auto companies not only rely on selling cars for profits, but also benefit from low carbonization. For example, Tesla 's revenue through carbon credit transactions reached $ 1.79 billion in 2023.On the other hand, the vehicle-network interaction combines electrification ( battery energy storage ), intelligence ( vehicle networking ) and low-carbon ( new energy power ) into a closed loop. Because the vehicle-network interaction needs to predict the travel characteristics of the vehicle, it needs the support of the Internet of Vehicles, and the vehicle-network interaction can integrate the three. From fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, similar to the transformation from landline telephone to mobile phone telephone, is still a communication function ; from electric vehicles to intelligent electric vehicles, similar to the emergence of smart phones, increased entertainment and social functions ; coupled with low carbonization, it is a real new energy intelligent electric vehicle, becoming a ' personnel-information-energy ' trinity multi-functional mobile terminal, which is not only an information terminal, but also an energy terminal, and also a terminal for personnel logistics. The new energy intelligent electric vehicle has the complete functions of transportation, entertainment and profit, and the future green consumption can also obtain carbon sink income. Therefore, it can be predicted that the future vehicle-network interaction is expected to change the traditional automobile business model ( Fig.1 ).
In short, the electrification, intelligence and low-carbonization of new energy vehicles are the upper, middle and lower stages of the new energy revolution process.
Challenges and risk prevention in the development of new energy vehicles
With the rapid development of new energy vehicle technology and the rapid increase of market share, new problems and challenges are constantly emerging, which need to be predicted and prevented in advance.
Risks of technological disruption
Taking all-solid-state batteries as an example, many enterprises and institutions have issued news on the industrialization of solid-state batteries, but many of them confuse all-solid-state batteries and solid-liquid hybrid batteries in the name of solid-state batteries. For the existing battery industry, the solid-liquid hybrid battery is not a disruptive technology, while the all-solid-state battery has a disruptive potential risk, although it does not pose a real threat at present. But we should remain vigilant and take precautions. The technical threshold of all-solid-state battery is higher and more difficult. It should not be rushed to success, otherwise it may be unattainable. In order to meet the needs of joint breakthroughs in this technology, China 's all-solid-state battery industry-university-research collaborative innovation platform was established in January 2024, aiming to promote the government, industry and academia to attach great importance to and participate together, and work together to maintain the sustainable leading edge of China 's battery industry.
From fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, their product performance differences have gradually become smaller, and homogenization competition has intensified. Electric vehicles are currently in the input period and face difficulties in profitability. Multinational automobile companies have accumulated a lot of experience in the field of fuel vehicles, with less investment and better profitability. Therefore, they are now investing in China 's new energy automobile enterprises, which is an understandable market behavior. However, there is also a need to be vigilant against the risk of large-scale acquisitions of new energy vehicle companies.
Risks of the technical route
At present, the artificial intelligence revolution is developing rapidly, and large-scale model innovation is showing an explosive growth trend. In the field of intelligent driving, Tesla 's fully automatic driving ( FSD ) test mileage has exceeded 300 million miles, and the test mileage is growing at an exponential rate. Tesla 's Dojo supercomputer has also begun mass production. In addition, Tesla 's FSD and Open AI 's Sora projects follow the same concept and underlying logic, that is, the video generation model is used as a world simulator to predict the movement trend of vehicles, thereby generating autonomous driving instructions. Tesla is moving towards the goal of fully autonomous driving. The traditional rule-based automatic driving algorithm has insufficient generalization ability and faces many ' long tail ' problems, making it difficult to achieve automatic driving. Therefore, the current route of fully automatic driving technology is being reshaped, which may bring some risks. The development momentum of the artificial intelligence revolution is rapid and the speed is fast, which may trigger the largest technological revolution in history and needs to be highly valued.
Risks of policy lag
In order to promote the interactive development between new energy vehicles and new energy power, accelerate the reform of power market and liberalize the user-side market, it is very important to implement real-time electricity price. Therefore, the realization of the development of vehicle-network interaction is mainly a reform issue, not only a national investment issue. In addition, the current implementation of the new energy vehicle double integral policy in the integral price is low, the incentive effect is limited, need to continue to optimize with the development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, carbon market policies should be considered so that new energy vehicles can get more opportunities to realize green attributes than fuel vehicles. Otherwise, there may be a situation where electric vehicles with high investment are difficult to make profits, while fuel vehicles with low investment can obtain better profits, which needs to be vigilant and prevented.
Risks to the industrial process
In the development process of the electric vehicle industry, it is also necessary to pay attention to the risks in the industrial process. Although China 's new energy vehicle market share has moved towards 50 %, it still needs to accelerate the pace of development and cannot delay the process of new and old energy conversion. If you fall into entanglements and wandering, the industrialization process will become very long, the problem will become more. Therefore, the goal of increasing the market share of new energy vehicles to more than 70 % by 2030 should be taken as the goal, and the pace of achieving this goal should be accelerated. Although there are risks, but not terrible, opportunities are greater than challenges.
In short, China 's new energy vehicles have experienced a severe cold test, and occasionally there may be late spring cold. No matter how ' spring ' has come, let us face the sea, greet the ' spring bloom '.
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